Eurasia Economic Summit 2002
Interview with Thierry Malleret, the Director for Europe and Central Asia at the World Economic Forum
Why is Eurasia such an appropriate place for an economic summit in 2002?
Eurasia has always been at the centre of the world. Sir Halford MacKinder, one of the founders of geopolitics, theorized that control of the core of Eurasia leads to control of the immense Eurasia landmass, and thus to control of the world. As is apparent today, protracted stability in the world will come only with stability in the core of Eurasia. Chaos there creates a spill-over effect that will be magnified in the future by the huge energy resources of the region.
How will you make this year’s Eurasia Economic Summit 2002 the major outcome-oriented gathering in the region?
By the quality of its participants: we will have the top decision-makers from both business and politics as well as some of the best thinkers. This, mixed with the scenario-building workshop format, should allow us to deliver tangible outcomes and make incremental progress on some decisive issues. The rest is cutting-edge knowledge on specific countries and sectors.
In what ways will the business agenda, geopolitical agenda and economic agenda be explored during the Summit?
Through very interactive workshops and constant feedback from some of our constituents. We make sure that the programme corresponds to their needs.
The Summit will bring together the government of Kazakhstan and the international business community; who else will be participating?
Many top-level leaders from the region. The Summit is taking place in Kazakhstan, but this is a quintessentially regional meeting involving all the top decision-makers from Central Asia, the Caucasus and surrounding countries.
How will the Summit contribute to improving the investment climate in the region?
We are working in close collaboration with the Foreign Investment Council (FIC) and some of the investors with the largest exposure in the region to identify the main stumbling blocks that prevent further direct investment and on ways in which we can improve the situation. Progress will be incremental, but this is what improving the investment climate is all about.
Eurasia Economic Summit 2002 Highlights
Creating Credible Scenarios for Central Asia and the Caucasus
An important component of the Eurasia Economic Summit 2002 will be an interactive scenario-building process to integrate the most influential and authoritative viewpoints into a comprehensive vision of the region’s future. The Summit will produce a realistic and outcome-oriented report presenting key scenarios which will help decision-makers in business and finance to measure the uncertainty associated with future possible outcomes for the region.
The Scenario Process
A series of interdisciplinary workshops throughout the course of the Summit will allow participants to debate and analyse three major types of risk:
Key drivers: Structural reforms, balance of accounts, debt and reserves, financial system, currency risk.
Key drivers: Legal and regulatory frameworks, succession, modernization of the state, political interference in the economy.
Key drivers: Regional conflict and geopolitics, fundamentalism, factors of stability and instability, culture and identity.
Expert moderators will lead participants through each risk dimension in a process of: identifying key drivers of change evaluating best, middle and worst case scenarios assessing the mutual impact of the scenario dimensions strategizing key recommendations for a comprehensive regional plan of action.
Interactive workshops will focus on each of the key risk dimensions: economic, political and security. Participants will consolidate the findings of each dimension into best, middle and worst case scenarios.
Day One conclusions from the three areas will be merged. Key outcomes will be integrated into consolidated scenarios. Combined scenarios of best, middle and worst cases will be presented at a closing plenary.
Scenario-building will provide a coherent framework which will permit a logical ordering of the many parameters that determine the region’s risks in an accessible manner. Analytical complexity will be reduced so that the findings can be integrated directly into financial and business decisions.
A book will be published elaborating on the key scenario findings.
Tailored presentations on the scenario findings can be arranged for Forum members and other corporations.
Eurasia Economic Summit 2002 Thierry Malleret
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